Let me take you back to that electric atmosphere of the 2018 NBA season - I still remember how everyone thought they had it all figured out. The Warriors looked invincible, the Rockets were building something special, and Cleveland still had LeBron. But looking back now with all the data we've got, I've got to ask: what were the real odds for the 2018 NBA championship winner? That question has haunted me ever since Golden State swept Cleveland in the finals, because the numbers we saw before the season began didn't quite match what actually unfolded on the court.
I was doing some research recently that reminded me how unpredictable championship journeys can be, especially when I stumbled upon this fascinating parallel from Philippine basketball. Cone eventually picked the 6-foot-1 Thompson, the former NCAA MVP and a known triple-double machine from University of Perpetual Help. Torres, the former national youth player who won a UAAP men's championship with La Salle, going three picks later at No. 8 to the Star Hotshots (Magnolia). What struck me about this scenario was how even with all the scouting and data available, teams still make surprising choices that defy conventional wisdom - much like how the 2018 NBA championship odds didn't fully capture the Warriors' dominance until it was too late for bettors looking for value elsewhere.
Now let's crunch some numbers from that 2018 season - and I've got to be honest, some of these statistics still surprise me when I look back. The Warriors entered the season with approximately 65% implied probability according to most sportsbooks, which translates to about -185 odds. That's absolutely insane when you think about it - no team in recent memory had such overwhelming favoritism before a single game was played. The Rockets were distant second at around 15%, while LeBron's Cavaliers sat at roughly 8% despite coming off three straight finals appearances. What fascinates me about these numbers is how they failed to account for Houston's 65-win season and their near-victory in the Western Conference Finals - if Chris Paul doesn't get hurt in Game 5, we might be having a completely different conversation about those preseason odds.
The real story wasn't in the preseason predictions though - it was in how the odds shifted dramatically throughout the playoffs. I tracked this religiously that year, and by the time the Warriors reached the finals, their probability had skyrocketed to nearly 90% against Cleveland. That adjustment tells you everything about how the market initially underestimated Golden State's playoff gear - their net rating in the postseason was +10.2, which is just absurd when you consider the competition they faced. What bothers me about retrospective analysis is that we often oversimplify - yes, the Warriors were heavy favorites, but the path there involved surviving Houston's historically efficient offense and adapting without home-court advantage in the Western Conference Finals.
Here's what the models missed though - and this is where my personal experience analyzing basketball tells me we need to be better. Statistical projections heavily favored the Warriors' talent, but they couldn't quantify the psychological wear of their third championship run in four years or the internal dynamics of integrating new role players. I remember thinking during the Rockets series that Houston's switching defense had cracked the code, only to watch Golden State flip the script in Games 6 and 7 through sheer championship experience. That's the problem with pure probability models - they can't measure heart, fatigue, or the subtle ways championship DNA manifests in critical moments.
If I were building odds today for a similar situation, I'd incorporate more qualitative factors - things like championship pedigree weighting, coaching adjustments in series, and the emotional impact of specific playoff moments. The 2018 Warriors taught me that probability isn't just about talent accumulation - it's about understanding how greatness responds to adversity. Those Houston Rockets were arguably the better team for portions of that series, yet Golden State found a way because they'd been there before. That's worth at least a 5-7% adjustment in championship probability that most models completely ignore.
Looking back, the real odds should have been closer to 70% for Golden State entering the season rather than the 65% we saw, accounting for their unique ability to elevate in playoff moments. For Houston, I'd have placed them at 20% rather than 15% given how perfectly constructed their roster was to challenge the Warriors. And Cleveland? Honestly, I think 5% would have been more appropriate given their defensive limitations and the sheer imbalance of their roster outside LeBron. The beauty of basketball is that probability tells part of the story, but the human elements - the moments where Thompson or Torres-like unexpected contributors emerge - that's what makes championship journeys so beautifully unpredictable.
